On 9 July, US president Donald Trump published a copy of a letter sent to the Brazilian government declaring the intention to tariff Brazilian products at fifty percent, the highest tariff imposed on any country by the US. Since then, significant debate has occurred about the real US motivations and how sovereignty in the Global South must be protected. To the surprise of many, President Lula da Silva’s government has refused to bend to US demands and chose instead to call for sovereignty – significantly increasing its popularity.

The tariff threat came just two days after Trump had threatened, via the Truth Social platform, that any country “aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an ADDITIONAL 10% Tariff”. Yet his July 9 letter states the reason for the tariff is that the Brazilian legal system is prosecuting extreme right former president Jair Bolsonaro. This is likely influenced by the Brazilian extreme right lobby to the US Congress – including Eduardo Bolsonaro, Jair’s son and a parliamentarian who admitted moving to the US to generate such influence. 

Trump is also opposing Brazil’s attempts to regulate social media and making demands regarding some of its commercial practices. Like most countries on the periphery of the empire, Brazil has a large counterfeit market for all kinds of goods, as original Lacoste shirts or iPhone charges are too expensive for the majority of workers that also want to consume these goods. The mechanism that opens the market for expensive branded electronics, also generates the market for cheaper copies of the original. The US says it will be investigating if these violate aspects of fair trade agreements signed by Brazil, when it concerns US based corporations.

More seriously, Brazilians use the PIX payments system that bypasses the US controlled SWIFT system and US based credit card companies. For this reason, PIX is a cheaper and popular payment system that the US would like to stop. Brazil is also one of the countries leading the international discussion on regulating the big US technology companies – particularly social media. Disputes in this space have resulted in Elon Musk’s X (Twitter) being suspended for over a month in 2024 and significant fines being issued to Silicon Valley companies by the Brazilian supreme court.

Bolsonaro’s pathway to prison and the alt-right

Jair Bolsonaro was president of Brazil from 2019 to 2022 after an embarrassing career in the military and over two decades as an irrelevant parliamentarian. He openly defended Brazil’s military coup and dictatorship (1964-1984) and advanced an aggressive neoliberal agenda. During the COVID-19 pandemic he refused to support lock down policies and delayed buying vaccines by falsely associating them with the development of HIV. As a result, 600,000 Brazilians died unnecessarily. His attitude during the pandemic may have cost him the election but has not generated any legal repercussions, so far.

Bolsonaro met with foreign ambassadors prior to the 2022 elections claiming the Brazilian election system was easy to defraud and no safe elections were possible in the country. He made easily refutable accusations and did not officially present initiatives to strengthen the electoral process. After losing the Presidential election to Lula, on the 8th of January 2023, Bolsonaro tried to organise a military coup but did not secure the full support of high command, resulting in no deployment of the armed forces against the elected government. However, civilians organised around this project by segments of the military, right wing politicians and some capitalists invaded the building of the parliament resulting in substantial destruction in the capital, Brasilia. With this history it is unsurprising that Bolsonaro was criminally investigated and banned in June 2023 from running for public office for eight years by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court. It is expected Bolsonaro will be imprisoned after September 2025, for his involvement in the coup attempt.

Bolsonaro did not politically attack only left-wing groups and Lula, but also the supreme court judges and particularly Alexandre de Moraes who was legally responsible for the 2022 elections.  Coincidentally, Moraes has also been responsible for investigating the 2023 coup and for the severe punishment of those found guilty of involvement. Bolsonaro and his supporters have called for the firing, torture and hanging of Moraes and his family. 

On 18 July Bolsonaro was ordered to wear an electronic tracking ankle bracelet to prevent him from fleeing the country, so Trump’s letter was understood as evidence of a flight risk. He was also forbidden from using social media to attempt to influence the investigation. The following day Marco Rubio announced the visas for entry to the US for eight of the 11 supreme court judges and their families were revoked. The other three judges are Bolsonaro appointees.

Days later, Trump Media (Trump’s own media company) and Rumble applied in the US for the use of the Magnitsky Act against Judge Moraes, due to his ‘unfair treatment’ of social media companies in the social media regulation process. On 30 July he was subjected to the extra-territorial, Magnitsky Act legislation used by the United States against non-state entities outside the US, usually associated with illegal activities and terrorism. Bolsonaro supporters took to the streets with him appearing online at some protests to demand the end to his prosecution. As a result, he was put under house arrest on 4 August. 

Brazil’s strategy, US retaliation and US back-down (for now)

The fifty percent tariff surprised Brazilians as the US holds a substantial trade surplus in their bilateral trade. Brazil is a country with a long-standing friendly relationship with the United States and no history of open disputes. For example, in his previous terms as president, Lula never joined former Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez in his fiery anti-Bush political speeches in the early 2000s that gained international attention. Despite evidence that the Obama administration promoted surveillance of citizens in Brazil, including against the government, former Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff (from the Workers Party, like Lula), maintained a good relationship with the US. 

Although Trump has not nominated an ambassador to Brazil, and no one is holding the position, Brazil has attempted to maintain negotiations while defending its sovereignty. The day after the fifty percent tariffs were announced, Lula gave a speech broadcast on all his social and national media platforms saying all US goods would be subjected to ‘reciprocity laws’, and reinforced Brazil’s sovereignty, stating that no foreign nation would be allowed to intervene in the Brazilian justice system.

This caused the government’s popularity to grow. People took to the streets in ten state capitals on July 10 and again on August 1 protesting the tariffs, with a turn out higher than Bolsonaro’s protests weeks earlier. The protests also reignited the interest in two of the national workers’ debates: taxing the super-rich and untaxed companies, and the end of the six-day workweek contracts. 

President Lula’s words calling for the US to respect Brazilian sovereignty and stating that sovereignty cannot be negotiated were repeated everywhere in Brazil and also on the internet. Hundreds of thousands of Brazilians left messages repeating those sentiments on Trump’s Instagram profile. It was so substantial the comments section was restricted. The protests also forced congress representatives to either take an anti-Bolsonaro, anti-Trump position or admit support for the tariffs, helping to complicate the extreme right standing in the country

The tariff attacks have caused a split in the local bourgeoisie whose profits are directly affected by potential tariffs. As Brazil’s main exports are mining and agriculture, these sectors are most vocal against the tariffs and the Bolsonaro’s family use of it as a political move.  This is particularly significant in agriculture, as its influence in Brazilian culture and politics has been felt for at least the last 15 years as a conservative force happily identified with Bolsonaro.

Bolsonaro tried to defend himself by claiming he did not ask for the tariffs and trying to sell his image as a victim while his son and some right-wing parliamentarians would defend the tariffs as ‘Lula’s and Moraes’ fault’. While many still support Bolsonaro, there is little support for the tariffs. 

On August 6, the tariffs were applied but most of the important Brazilian exports to the US were granted exemptions. Brazil removed the threat of reciprocal tariffs, replacing it with a proposed combined BRICS response and offered financial help to the affected industries. The wide-ranging exemptions granted by the US showed that Brazil’s defiance has paid off so far, with the remaining tariffs more symbolic than threatening – but this is not the end of the story. 

Bolsonaro’s trial is looming and the plan to regulate social media is going ahead. There are also numerous other reasons why the US may decide again to increase tariffs or retaliate against Brazil at any time. The US–Brazil dispute has been a clear display of imperialism and resistance. As the US expands its imperialist strategies and seems to move further away from diplomacy, defiant resistance will be required again and often from Brazil and other Global South countries.