The Pink Tide, known in Spanish as marea rosa, describes the political change across Latin America in the late 1990s and early 2000s, when a number of countries elected left-leaning governments. These administrations – led by figures such as Hugo Chávez in Venezuela, Evo Morales in Bolivia, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil, Rafael Correa in Ecuador, Néstor Kirchner, followed by his wife, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in Argentina, and José Mujica in Uruguay – rejected the neoliberal economic frameworks dominant since the 1980s. Instead, they prioritised social equity, poverty alleviation, and greater national control over key economic sectors.

Two decades into the Pink Tide, many of its founding leaders are aging or gone, and there’s little sign of a new generation ready to take the reins.

Bolivia’s new reality

On October 19, the Bolivian people went to the polls to vote on a run-off for their President and Vice-President. The result marked a dramatic political shift: Rodrigo Paz Pereira, a senator and leader of the Christian Democratic Party (PDC), secured approximately 54.6% of the vote, defeating former president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga (remember this name), who received around 45.4%.

Paz’s victory represents Bolivia’s first presidential runoff win under the new Constitution created in 2009 and the first time since 2005 that no candidate from the left-wing Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party reached the final round.

Paz campaigned on a platform of “popular capitalism”, promising to rebuild fiscal stability, decentralise budgets, and attract foreign investment while maintaining targeted social programs. His message resonated with small business owners and working-class voters frustrated by economic stagnation, inflation exceeding 23% and chronic shortages of fuel and U.S. dollars.

His running mate, Edman Lara Montaño, a former police captain, pledged a tough stance on corruption. Together, they built a broad coalition across Bolivia’s 327 municipalities, including former MAS strongholds.

Ascension of Movimiento al Socialismo

The Movimiento al Socialismo – Instrumento Politico por la Soberania de los Pueblos (Socialism Movement – Political Instrument for the Sovereignty of the Peoples, MAS-IPSP) was founded in 1997 as a grassroots Indigenous movement and coca-grower unions to resist neoliberal reforms and US-backed coca eradication policies.

Coca leaf cultivation plays a crucial role in the lives of Bolivia’s Indigenous peoples, serving not only as a primary source of income but also as a cornerstone of cultural identity and spiritual tradition. For many, particularly among the Aymara (40.6%) and Quechua (49.5%) populations, coca is revered as sacred – used in rituals, offerings, and daily practices that connect communities to ancestral cosmologies. According to Bolivia’s 2012 National Census, 41% of citizens over the age of 15 identified as Indigenous, with projections from the National Institute of Statistics (INE) in 2017 suggesting this figure may have risen to 48%, underscoring the enduring significance of coca within a growing Indigenous demographic.

Evo Morales, born into an Aymara family, emerged as a key figure within Bolivia’s campesino union movement, representing rural labourers and coca growers. As a union leader, he fiercely opposed joint US–Bolivian coca eradication efforts under the War on Drugs, condemning them as imperialist assaults on Andean Indigenous traditions. His leadership in direct action protests against government policies led to repeated arrests, solidifying his reputation as a grassroots defender of Indigenous rights.

Morales entered formal politics in 1995, won a congressional seat in 1997, and assumed leadership of the MAS in 1998. His populist messaging centred on the struggles of Indigenous and impoverished communities, with demands for land reform and a more equitable distribution of revenues from Bolivia’s natural gas sector. His national profile grew significantly during the Cochabamba Water War and subsequent gas conflict, positioning him as a leading voice against neoliberal privatization and for popular sovereignty.

MAS Election

In March 2005, President Carlos Mesa stepped down under growing pressure from Evo Morales and mass mobilisations by coca-grower unions, including roadblocks and nationwide protests. To prevent further unrest, the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court assumed interim leadership and called for general elections in December.

Morales led the MAS campaign, guided by Peruvian strategist Walter Chávez, drawing symbolic inspiration from Salvador Allende’s 1970 victory in Chile. Allende, a Socialist president, died during the 1973 military coup led by Augusto Pinochet, backed by the CIA – a legacy Morales invoked to frame his own anti-imperialist message.

MAS faced Jorge Quiroga of the centre-right PODEMOS party, who defended neoliberal policies and accused Morales of supporting cocaine legalisation and foreign influence, particularly from Venezuela.

The December 2005 election saw a record 84.5% turnout. Morales won with 53.7% of the vote – Bolivia’s first absolute majority in four decades and the highest vote share for any Latin American presidential candidate at the time. As the sixth leftist leader elected since 1998, his victory was seen as part of the broader Pink Tide.

Morales became Bolivia’s first Indigenous president; a milestone celebrated across Indigenous communities in the Americas. His election was compared to Nelson Mandela’s rise in South Africa. Yet, it also stirred unease among Bolivia’s elite and landowning classes, who feared nationalisation and land reform and provoked alarmism from far-right groups warning of racial conflict.

Evo Morales Era

Evo Morales’ first presidential term marked a turning point in Bolivia’s economic direction. His administration nationalised the mining and hydrocarbon sectors, using the country’s vast natural gas reserves to invest in rural infrastructure and social programs. Welfare initiatives expanded, including universal pensions, conditional cash transfers, and agricultural support. Price controls and food subsidies helped stabilise inflation and stimulate growth.

Morales distanced Bolivia from global financial institutions, rejecting the influence of the World Bank and IMF, and in 2007 withdrew from the International Centre for the Settlement of Investment Disputes. He opposed U.S.-backed trade deals, framing them as imperialist. Guided by the vivir bien (living well) philosophy rooted in Andean communal values, Bolivia experienced rapid economic growth and eliminated illiteracy. In 2009, a new constitution – approved by over 90% of voters – redefined Bolivia as a plurinational, secular state and reset presidential term limits, allowing Morales to run twice more.

During his second and third terms, Morales advanced progressive policies: a gender-balanced cabinet, anti-domestic violence measures and environmental protections like banning genetically modified seeds. He also condemned global conflicts, notably declaring Israel a “terrorist state” in 2014. However, internal dissent grew among Indigenous and leftist groups over fuel subsidy cuts, infrastructure neglect and development projects in protected areas, which sparked protests and strikes.

In 2016, Morales lost a referendum to amend the constitution allowing him to run for a fourth term. Despite this, MAS nominated him for the 2019 election. The Constitutional Court later abolished term limits and the Electoral Tribunal approved his candidacy; decisions criticised for judicial bias. Morales narrowly avoided a runoff with a 10% lead over Carlos Mesa, but a 20-hour delay in vote reporting triggered widespread protests and fraud allegations. Bolivia’s long history of coup d’état – 24 attempted or successful since 1949 – set the backdrop for the crisis. On 10 November 2019, Morales resigned, calling his removal a “coup” and seeking asylum in Mexico amid threats and attacks on his family and allies.

After Morales and other officials stepped down, Jeanine Áñez, a former senator from the Social Democratic Movement, declared herself interim president. Bolivia held general elections in October 2020, electing Luis Arce of MAS-IPSP with 55% of the vote. MAS regained control of both legislative chambers, seen by many as a rejection of the 2019 ousting.

In June 2024, Bolivia faced another crisis when dissident military officers led by General Juan José Zúñiga attempted a coup amid growing political and economic instability. Internal divisions within MAS – particularly between Morales and Arce and their supporters – had weakened the government’s response to a deepening financial crisis. Morales later accused Arce of staging a self-coup, apologised for initially supporting him, and called for an independent investigation. In the aftermath, Arce announced he would not seek re-election in 2025.

The future of the Pink Tide

Argentina, long shaped by Kirchnerism, oscillated between centre-left and centre-right governments from 2003 to 2019. But in 2023, amid deep economic turmoil and public frustration, voters elected Javier Milei, a self-proclaimed anarcho-capitalist minarchist (advocate of minimal government). This signalled a sharp turn to the far right and a break from Peronist traditions.

In Bolivia, the once-dominant MAS party saw its support collapse with candidate Eduardo del Castillo earning just over 3% in the first round of this year’s election.

Uruguay, however, returned to progressive leadership in 2024 with Yamandú Orsi of the Movimiento de Participación Popular, reviving a leftist tradition interrupted only by Luis Lacalle Pou’s centre-right presidency.

Chile is set to hold presidential elections in mid-November. Due to constitutional restrictions prohibiting consecutive terms, current President Gabriel Boric cannot run for re-election. Instead, he has thrown his support behind his Labour Minister, Jeannette Jara, a member of the Communist Party. However, polling suggests that right-wing contenders José Antonio Kast and Evelyn Matthei are likely to face off in the second round, signalling a potential setback for the South American left.

In Colombia, President Gustavo Petro – once a guerrilla fighter and now the country’s first leftist head of state – faces a constitutional ban on re-election. With the next presidential vote scheduled for March 2026, it remains uncertain whether his chosen successor can build on Petro’s anti-imperialist agenda and preserve the Pink Tide’s momentum.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva officially declared on October 24 that he will seek re-election in 2026. This would mark his second non-consecutive re-election and his fourth term overall. The announcement coincided with his 80th birthday, celebrated during a diplomatic meeting with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto.

Although a robust candidate, Lula’s public disapproval had been rising just two months earlier. However, his strong opposition to Trump’s 50% tariffs imposed on the country, combined with the far-right Upper and Lower Houses representatives who vocally supported Trump’s tariffs and possible U.S. invasion into the country, helped restore his popularity and boost his approval ratings.

If the left fails to cultivate new leadership and assert itself in the digital arena, the Pink Tide will not simply recede—it will be eclipsed by a rising far-right movement that thrives on misinformation, algorithmic manipulation, and emotional discontent. The future of progressive politics in Latin America depends not just on defending past gains, but on building a resilient, tech-savvy, and generationally rooted movement capable of confronting the battles ahead.